• Record negative sentiment in the market presents a significant opportunity; historically, extreme bearishness often precedes substantial gains.

• Despite current volatility, targeted sectors like precious metals and natural gas equities are showing strong performance, similar to what we saw in 2008/2009, 2015/2016, and 2020.

• Model Portfolios have experienced mixed performance year-to-date, but resilience and a contrarian approach are essential to capitalize on the upcoming capital rotation.

• Even if it is your own blood in the streets, don't let that pain cloud your judgement. Do your best to keep an even keel.

• Stay detached from market noise and focus on long-term opportunities; resilience is key to navigating the current market turbulence and achieving substantial gains.

"If you can detach yourself — temperamentally — from the crowd, you'll get very rich. You don't have to be very bright, [either]." "It doesn't take brains. It takes temperament."

- Warren Buffett

Travis's Intro Note For Members:

Getting back into my normal routine as my vacation winds down. On that note, really think about these next three charts, as the old adage, a picture says a thousand words is really something I want to focus on here, specifically how negative sentiment is right now. Building on this narrative, sentiment is at record negative levels.

From Subu Trade (emphasis added is my own).

This is the 8th consecutive week with over 50% Bears.

This has never happened before.

Not during COVID, 2008, dot-com collapse, or 1990 bear market

And, from Sentiment Trader.

One iteration of our Risk On/Risk Off indicator reached an extreme risk-off level.

This prompted @jaykaeppel to ask, "Is Risk-On/Risk Off so risk-off that it's risk on?"

The results were surprising and compelling. Read @jaykaeppels Apr 14 article "Is Risk On/Risk Off So Risk Off That It's Risk On?"

And, from Jeff Weniger.

You're looking at the highest reading on record in 1,841 weekly stock market sentiment observations from 1990 to 2025.

The inputs: the VIX volatility index + AAII survey bearish respondents + Investors Intelligence survey respondents who expect a correction.

In 10 of the last 11 fear spikes, the S&P 500 went on to gains over the next 52 weeks. Returns were often large too (+31.0%, +21.0%, and so on).

Back to Travis here, read the Buffett quote again at the top of this article, and think of how important it is to detach yourself here from the record volatility in the markets. Bigger picture, while I think the broader market, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY 0.00%↑ is due for a shorter-term bounce (even though it may run in place for a long time as it did in 2000-2010) I think the hidden in plain sight pool of significant opportunity is going to be in our targeted sectors and securities, which are even more contrarian now in some ways than they were in 2020. Encouragingly, much like 2008/2009 and 2015/2016, precious metals are leading. Additionally, much like 2020, natural gas equities are leading the energy complex.